by Jeff McNeal, editor & publisher - The BIG PictureAfter reading a few articles predicting the premature death of DVD because of some new display or storage technology or the Norwegian hack of the DVD encryption code, I think it's time to say "enough already!"
The doom and gloom set seem hellbent on spoiling the party and derailing DVD for the sake of introducing new storage devices or creating dramatic news stories, because they know that early adopters are always on the lookout for the next new thing and drama is what sells news stories. Combine them both and you have a great recipe for potent copy that's going to be noticed. It all boils down to one word, folks. Marketing. Yes, marketing.
A recent encounter that I had with ABC News underscores the point. A few weeks ago, I was contacted by the producer of ABC World News Tonight With Peter Jennings and asked my opinion regarding the DVD encryption hack. The next thing I knew, an ABC film crew was ringing my doorbell, setting up lights and recording my comments on camera while reporter Brian Rooney asked his questions via speakerphone.
When the story finally aired recently after a several week delay, my interview segment was completely cut out of the story. Why? I can't say for certain, but Jennings' producer said that "New York decided they didn't want an expert opinion for this story". What does that mean?
Here's my theory: After watching the story, it became apparent to me that the reason my comments were cut had more to do with the theatrical presentation of the story. In other words, my comments didn't jibe with the dark and foreboding angle that the network wanted to paint for the future of DVD. Indeed, the piece left the viewer to question the future viability of the DVD format and left everyone hanging with "what now?" Personally, I really don't care that my segment was cut (at least from an ego standpoint). I've been on national television before and quoted in the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post, among others -- and I'm sure I'll be quoted again God willing and the creek don't rise. The last thing I needed was another ego stroke. However, the thing that bothered me is that it's obvious that ABC News apparently did not want a balanced viewpoint, which frankly, I found disappointing and a bit alarming.
Don't ever let anyone tell you that television news is balanced and unbiased, because as I just learned firsthand, it isn't. This of course, should come as no major revelation to most of us. But it's still disappointing, nonetheless.
Unlike MPAA spokesman Jack Valenti, who predictably took the Chicken Little approach upon hearing the news of the CSS crack with "the sky is falling" mentality, I countered the notion that the de-CSS hack was a serious blow to the future of DVD. In my comments, I suggested that so long as the studios keep the prices low and the value of their DVDs high (value determined by audio/video quality and added content for example), and that they begin issuing more titles in hot demand like STAR WARS, INDIANA JONES TRILOGY, THE GODFATHER TRILOGY and CITIZEN KANE among others, then they had nothing to fear, since copying a DVD to a hard drive with the de-CSS software currently takes hours and hours and hogs up to 17 gigs of valuable hard drive space. My position was that so long as the studios kept doing what they are doing (with the exception of Disney who raised their prices and don't always provide high quality transfers), then, as Ike and Tina Turner once said, things are gonna work out fine.
Another reason I suspect my comments were deep-sixed might have to do with my criticism of Disney for raising their retail prices to $39 and for not taking advantage of the quality available to DVD by shunning anamorphic transfers for the most part. Shrortly after my interview, Disney rejected The BIG Picture's request for review DVD's -- something that they had provided to us previously without a any red tape or hesitation. Disney owns ABC. My comments to ABC regarding Disney's DVD policy were less than glowing. You do the math. Was TheBIGPicture.com a victim of corporate politics? You decide.
Another gloomy prediction about the future of DVD has come recently from the discussion of a new storage device called FMD-ROM, which boasts 15 times the capacity of standard DVDs. The author of one such article branded DVD as "obsolete" and urged his readers to "kiss DVD goodbye". Sorry, Charlie. There's absolutely no chance of DVD going dark in the near future, new technologies and de-CSS encryption hacks notwithstanding. The reasons are purely economical and quite simple.
Hardware manufactures and content providers have invested hundreds of millions of dollars into the development, manufacture and promotion of the DVD format. They have yet to realize the enormous return on that investment, but it's rapidly approaching. A London research firm has suggested that by 2003, DVD will have overtaken VHS -- a notion that would have been laughed at in 1998 when less than a million DVD players were in the hands of consumers.
Speaking of consumers, the early adopters are the ones that determine the success or failure of any format. Not corporate hype or huge investments. Just ask Circuit City. With well over $230 million dollars invested by the company in an effort to shove DIVX down the throats of consumers, the early adopters are the ones that sealed the fate of the unpopular pay-per-view DVD variant. Circuit City thought that they could use their considerable muscle to do an end run around the early adopters and go straight to the motherloade -- the average American consumer. Wrong-o, Dick.
In case you missed it, Circuit City Chairman Richard Sharp, who championed the DIVX format, took his fat severance package in the wake of its failure and blew town to work on his "golf handicap". Ironically, leaving the very consumers that bought into his concept behind. Ironic, because he had considered "DIVX-enabled" players to be the successor to standard DVD players which he had callously branded as "obsolete".
Manufactures of new storage technologies like FMD-ROM face a similar risk if they believe that storage capacity alone is going to win over consumers or content providers. While a terrabyte hard drive sounds like just the ticket for my desktop computer, what value would such a player have as a medium for displaying movies? The only advantage that I can see is that it would allow easier, uncompressed storage of hi-def film stock. Without the need for compression, or less of it, the image quality would be astounding.
Which brings up another reality check. Getting all the major studios to commit to issuing titles on DVD was not an immediate or easy thing to do. Compression artifacts and relatively low-res (compared to HDTV) aside, the studios feared the prospect of providing perfect digital copies of their films on a digital medium like DVD. Now that the once seemingly impenetrable CSS encryption code has been hacked (by a 16-year-old, no less), I ask you: Who in their right minds believe that content providers will be willing to support a format of even higher resolution for their films, when the DVD market is still largely untapped and the likelihood of future encryption hacks of hi-def material remains high?
I could see that eventually, yes, the studios will release their precious films in hi-definition format - but not until the DVD well has run dry and has been plundered and tapped. In other words, after you've invested $30,000 in your DVD library and no longer need to buy twelve movies a month or whatever, the studios will re-release their films in an even higher quality package to sell you, your kids or your grandchildren the same titles all over again. Remember laserdisc? Think about it. There is no way that the studios will abandon DVD now, or in the foreseeable future because:
The consumer market is still largely untapped.
The consumer market is growing rapidly.
Copying DVD's is still cumbersome and impractical for the average consumer.
A multimillion dollar infrastructure is already in place.
DVD is a very successful and profitable business.
There's also the consumer angle to consider. I said long ago, when DVD was first introduced, that there was no doubt in my mind that it would succeed, in part, because of the built in familiarity factor. DVD's look and handle like compact discs, which were already long established and embraced by consumers.
But what about the argument that higher capacity formats could store say, 10 or even 20 movies on a single disc?
Just because the storage capacity exists, doesn't mean that content providers will take advantage of it (just like they don't do presently with DVD in most cases) and movies are NOT the same as music. Not taking into consideration the exorbitant cost that a disc containing 5 or more movies might command, how many consumers watch more than one film at a time? I would venture to say not many. Currently, DVD's are easy to store, display well and typically contain one movie title. This makes selection easier and more intuitive for consumers than say, a future mega disc with 10 titles on it.
DVDs are afforadble, consumer friendly and often contain enough features to satisfy the most demanding videophile.
Those are my reasons why DVD is going to be around for a good long while. Enjoy the show and don't be alarmed by the naysayers who seek to create a media frenzy over issues that really don't carry much relevence to the current state of the DVD format.
Here's another clue that should bolster my theories: You haven't noticed DVD production or new title announcements slowing down, have you? If the studios aren't worried, consumers shouldn't be, either. As long as the studios deliver quality product and keep their prices reasonable (an average cost of $20-$25 per disc), then the future of DVD looks very, very bright indeed. You can quote me on that.
That's my opinion. What's yours?
Jeff McNeal, Editor & Publisher
The BIG Picture
PREVIOUS EDITORIALS
Trouble in paradise: What every widescreen owner needs to know before they get burned.
Disney: It's time to give your customers what they (really) want
Warner Appreciation Week: It's time to give back
Turn! Turn! Turn!: A time to heal
DVD: In search of standards
DVD Quality Control: Who's watching the gate?
Chipping Away at DIVX: One blow at a time.
DVD Video Retailers: Where's the beef?
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